Lots of winners and very few losers: that is the first thought that comes to mind when reviewing the market’s annual performance. Admittedly, there were a few casualties in 2025: on the currency side, the dollar lost more than 10% against the euro and the Swiss franc, while the yen also lost nearly 9% against the euro. Bitcoin has been struggling since Autumn, and on the commodities side, the WT lost 20% over the year... But compared to this handful of losers, there were so many winners! Gold (up 65% over the year), transition metals (up 37% for copper) and, above all, almost all the major stock markets (in local currency). From South Korea (75% over one year) to Spain (49%), Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong (27%) and the Nasdaq (21%), all these markets showed remarkable strength and, each with differing dynamics, ended the year with strong gains. European markets were buoyed by banks and the Defense sector, while the United States once again benefited from the Technology sector: different drivers, therefore, but ultimately performances that are all the more remarkable given that they were achieved against a backdrop of continued geopolitical uncertainties, trade wars and rising tariffs. As such, investors can legitimately question themselves on the crowdedness of some themes and what to do next. Identifying the moment when a theme becomes too consensual is indeed a difficult if not impossible exercise. Taking profit and rebalancing elsewhere on other, less popular and more contrarian investments may be an interesting option. There are not that many contrarian choices at the end of 2025, as it has been a good year for most assets. Nevertheless, Oil, Asian currencies (we are thinking in particular of the extremely undervalued Yen and Renminbi), some Asian markets and some stock market sectors under pressure (such as consumer ones) are a few examples. Taking a longer view than just 2025, certain asset classes such as emerging markets and commodities can also fit the description as they materially underperformed in the previous years. We discuss these points in our investment newsletter.
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