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One step forward, two steps back

That’s how we might sum up the current sequence of events. Remembering that on April 2nd, Donald Trump shocked the world by unveiling universal tariffs on goods imported into the United States. Very few territories were spared, even the Heard & MacDonald Islands (although inhabited only by penguins) were punished; more fortunate Vladimir Putin’s Russia […]

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Mr. Trump’s Random Walk on Financial Markets

Markov, a Russian mathematician, remains well known for modelling stochastic processes, one of the classic illustrations of which is known as the alcoholic’s gait: given that a drunkard advances by taking each step in a random direction, how long before he returns to his initial position? In April, the markets displayed a series of violent […]

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Quarterly Outlook

Two birthdays and a funeral 

Investors love anniversaries and the spectacular figures that go with them, so we couldn’t ignore this double anniversary:  1- Exactly 25 years ago, the internet bubble burst and the Nasdaq lost more than 75% of its value in the two years that followed! 2- Five years ago, on 12 March 2020, at the start of […]

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THE FIRST HUNDRED DAYS !

President Franklin D Roosevelt first coined this term in July 1933. The expression became a measure of a President’s success and achievements when their power and influence are at their highest point. Rarely has an expression seemed so fitting as in the case of Donald Trump. Since his first days in office he has already signed […]

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A VERY TR(i)UMP(hant) PRESIDENT! 

Donald Trump’s inauguration was barely two weeks ago, but the US President had already stolen the show, saturating the media over the past two months.  On both social and economic issues, Donald Trump was everywhere and the markets, although quick to anticipate, sometimes struggled to keep up. The overwhelming predominance of the United States is nothing […]

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Geopolitics

GEOPOLITICAL INSIGHTS, YEAR 2025

Hollywood is no stranger to producing more or less successful sequels to successful films. In many ways, Donald Trump’s return to the White House is reminiscent of these movie sequels, in which the hero returns in a new plot after a more or less long lapse of time. While it is still too early to […]

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Quarterly Outlook

2024, “Make (US) Equities Great Again” ! – 2025, “Make EAFE Great Again” ?

Once the turkey has been digested, the disillusioned European investor will note that – as usual (16 times out of 17 since 2008!) – US markets are out-performing other markets, the European one in particular. This is routine, although the scale of the S&P500 out-performance in 2024 is quite exceptional: +23% Stateside compared with a […]

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Trump 2.0, the revenge?

Hollywood is no stranger to producing more or less successful sequels to successful films. In many ways, Donald Trump’s return to the White House is reminiscent of these movie sequels, in which the hero returns in a new plot after a more or less long lapse of time. While it is still too early to […]

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US elections and the markets

US elections and the markets Investors are fond of historical data, of market observations over a period of time, and they tirelessly seek out repeatable ‘historical’ patterns. So, when asked ‘Are some months better than others for stock markets?  The answer is yes. There is no doubt that performance is not randomly distributed over the year. […]

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