Anyone who followed the economic news this August would have found it hard to miss this warning about debt. ‘Debt concerns’ would have been a more accurate way of putting it, as three specific concerns were coming to the fore at the same time: those regarding US public debt, those concerning the debts and liabilities of the hyperscalers, and finally, mounting concerns about the French public debt… Three different fixed income segments, three very distinct sources of concern, and the first effects are already being felt: pressure on US debt has already triggered a sharp rally in Gold and others assets perceived as “store of value”.

The Football World Cup, the heatwave in Europe, the resurgence of the Iran-US conflict, massive wildfires in France and Spain…

May 2026 has been a month of superlatives, with records being broken one after another and countless new 'all-time highs' for stock market indices. This trend is being driven by technology stocks, and the market capitalisation of just a few companies is striking: 13 companies each now have market caps exceeding $1 trillion. Berkshire Hathaway is the sole non-Tech member of this club led by Nvidia, a club that has just welcomed three new members this month: Samsung, Micron and SK Hynix. The trajectory in capital expenditures is also mind boggling with the big four – Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet and Meta – alone expected to spend over 600 billion by the end of 2026. Whilst equity investors are relentlessly betting on the same winners, Fixed Income investors are having less of a party with the 30-year US bond reaching a record not seen since 2007… Seeing long term rates hit new highs at a time when the US deficit is over 6% of GDP and when the US's flagship industry is in frantic need of capital expenditure, is a cause for concern. The highly imperfect but nonetheless likely Iran-US agreement should bring down inflation expectations and thus potentially long-term rates. Nevertheless, just as much as the bubble indicators, the level of US long-term rates must remain under scrutiny… We are developing these topics in our newsletter.

About a month ago, oil prices broke the $100 mark, and the prospect of a resurgence in inflation sowed doubt among investors and put equity markets under heavy pressure. In just a few weeks punctuated by incessant and contradictory presidential comments, while the ceasefire appeared temporary and the Strait of Hormuz remained blocked, those doubts appear distant. Major U.S. indices are at record highs. There is certainly some excess in recent market behaviour, and while the recent past and the signals sent by companies argue for staying invested (which we have), caution and some doubts about EPS trends also call for greater selectivity and thinking twice at more asymmetric solutions or option strategies to add more robustness to portfolios. The markets aren’t completely irrational! We are discussing these topics in our latest newsletter.

Although the US President has been preoccupied by the Middle East situation and annoyed by the Supreme Court’s recent decision to invalidate most of his tariff policies, to us it seems that Donald Trump has been less focused on domestic economics, at least for the first part of the month. Instead, the spotlight has been largely saturated by, artificial intelligence (AI), with investors focusing on the implications and consequences this could have for the market. The renewed crisis in the Middle East triggered late February by US & Israeli airstrikes on Iran undoubtedly had short term ripple effects on commodities and financial markets. On this topic, the difference between short- and long-term implications also remained important. Albeit painful, it seems to us that the excess of confidence or of pessimism linked to AI and to some extent geopolitics should provide interesting entry (or exit!) points for stock-pickers we are favoring. We are discussing these topics in more detail in this newsletter.

After a first month of the year as eventful as 2025 was, one question often comes to mind for investors: will the trends continue? In short, will 2026 looks like 2025 in terms of stock market performance? The same leading assets are still in the lead, despite a tumultuous end to the month: despite a drop of nearly 9% on the last trading day of the month, gold still rose by 13% in January. Despite a 30% drop in the same session, silver also ended the month up nearly 20%. Taking a closer look, the market appears to be "playing" an inflationary boom even modest. This is undoubtedly the only scenario that reconciles the strength of metals and outperforming industrial stocks and emerging markets. This modest inflationary boom scenario implied by market behaviour in January seems "reasonable" to us. We are detailing in this newsletter on how to implement it while keeping in mind the following risk factors: the unpredictability of the US President, the expensive valuation of the US market and the tensions on long term rates.

The talks of artificial intelligence bubble, the sharp fall in cryptocurrencies, the debt binge that has become almost too frequent with some major IT players (have a look at Oracle!) are fueling the anxiety-inducing stock market news in November and are very much centric on one narrative. Nvidia's results were eagerly awaited as a litmus test that could tip the markets one way or the other. At the end of the period, the stellar figures from the largest US company reassured the markets, while in the hours that followed, the increased probability to see the Federal Reserve cutting in December contributed to a return to calm. Greenspan has not been at the helm of the Fed in a long time, but the "Greenspan Put" remains relevant: mention a rate cut and investors relax. These year-end fluctuations are likely to continue, and we believe it is more important than ever not to base allocations on the weightings of the major global indices, which remain grossly overweight in US equities  but to consider other investment areas, primarily in Asia in the broadest sense for its secular growth and rerating potential, but also in a few selected investment themes in Europe with 2026 in perspective. We are discussing these topics in more detail in our newsletter.

As always, the answer to this question depends on where you find yourself. A French investor who sees his successive governments' survival times becoming shorter and shorter will find it difficult to be optimistic. On the other side of the Atlantic, investors are experiencing a very different atmosphere. As the earnings season progresses, it is very likely that the results will be good, with 80% of US companies that have reported beating estimates in terms of revenue and profit. However, this month has not been without its hiccups, with a few abrupt down sessions. Despite this, equity markets quickly returned to their upward trend, buoyed by enthusiasm for artificial intelligence. Such fervor is reminiscent of the dot-com bubble and raises questions about its sustainability. Amongst other topics, we address these questions in our investment letter.

The expression takes on its full meaning after Ursula von der Leyen's visit to Donald Trump at his golf course in Turnberry, or in light of the 39% tariffs that the United States are threatening to impose on Switzerland. It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future. Often quoted, this phrase has been attributed to Danish wisdom, Niels Bohr, Mark Twain and Pierre Dac, among others. Despite its uncertain origin, the saying remains timeless when it comes to anticipating market trends. Donald Trump and his constant U-turns are giving it a new lease of life, while forecasters – even the most prestigious ones – are chasing after news that always seems to elude them. Nevertheless, it is clear that the steady news flow seems to require constant adjustments. Since Donald Trump's inauguration, we have taken a somewhat opposite approach, making few changes to our allocations. This was a bold choice at first, but ultimately a wise one, as it has allowed us to avoid a few missteps. However, we felt it was wise to partially secure some of the equity gains achieved this year by spending a small premium on market hedging. The small fraction of profits to be invested in order to get through the summer with peace of mind seemed attractive at a time when US stock valuations are particularly stretched. We are discussing in more detail these topics in this newsletter.