Banque Eric Sturdza’s investment strategies are guided by extensive research. Through our investment committee, we look at trends in the world economy to determine how assets should be allocated across investment classes, geographical areas and currencies. Discover our latest thinking on the global economy, markets and investments in our Insight Report.

  1. Investment Focus – US Elections, November 2020

    Once again, the US elections turned out to be a good drama, full of surprises, one that Netflix could have produced. The Trump vote has once again been underestimated in polls. Initial market reactions were positive to what appears to be a seriously contested election result. As we write, Biden won the presidential race and Trump is contesting results in several states. This is a remake of the Bush/Gore scenario, another drama ! The Senate race is tighter than anticipated, raising the odds of a split Congress. We are reviewing these events, their potential implications and share our thoughts on the initial market reactions.

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  2. Monthly Newsletter, November 2020

    Like each year, we change the clocks, thus also marking the fact that we are entering winter. There’s no equivalent in China, where they prefer to stick to a single reading of the time throughout the country, Beijing time. As we are changing clocks, Covid-19 is again a concern with a 2nd wave in Europe. In the US, even if Joe Biden is leading over Donald Trump by 10 percentage points in national polls, his lead in key battleground states such as Florida is much more limited. No such uncertainties in China, with a COVID situation under control and an economy recovering strongly. After a brief jolt in September, no signs also of a 2nd wave for the financial markets in October, but volatility making a come-back with month-end sessions. We review the market-moving events of this month and discuss these investment topics in this letter.

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  3. Investment Focus – China, October 2020

    Time to look East when everyone is looking West ?

    This question summaries the dilemma investors are facing this month, as they are focused on the US election topic and potentially overlooking China’s merits. China appears to be coping quite well with the COVID-19 situation, while the US and the EU are still struggling with the pandemic. On the economic front, China is also standing out, being the only economy in the G20 expected to post positive GDP growth in 2020. We are discussing these points in this investment focus.

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  4. QUARTERLY OUTLOOK, Q4 2020

    Stock market records in August, record temperatures in September, quite a summer in 2020 ! Indeed an exacerbated enthusiasm for technology stocks in August caused markets to surge. Since then, a healthy correction in tech stocks, the faster increase in Covid-19 cases most notably in Europe and fears of a disputed US election caused volatility to increase slightly and markets to consolidate. In this Quarterly Outlook, we come back on the recent market moving events and try to assess the various US election outcomes and potential implications.

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  5. Monthly Newsletter, SEPTEMBER 2020

    September is already here and the summer of 2020 is coming to an end. This period, traditionally a good time to rest, has been seriously disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic: limited cross-border travel, no gatherings, face masks and protective measures not to be forgotten plus potential quarantine when you are back… Financial markets ignored these concerns and continued to move upward. We review the market-moving events of this summer and focus on the highlights of this “back to school” period.

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  6. Monthly Newsletter, AUGUST 2020

    Summer is settling in, and Covid-19 with it. The number of people infected worldwide exceeds 17 million and the number of victims is close to 700,000. Despite a resurgence of new cases, the pandemic seems to be under control in northern Asia and in Europe, with lockdown easing strategies under better control. The drastic increase in new cases in the United States, Latin America and India is more worrying. In the European Union, leaders agree on a historic recovery plan and take a first step towards European debt pooling. We are discussing those points in our monthly newsletter.

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  7. Quarterly outlook, 3rd quarter 2020

    Our last quarterly outlook was drafted against a backdrop of a dislocated stock market environment, with the (extremely volatile) Standard and Poor’s index trading 45% below its current level. The anxiety-inducing environment and strict lockdown unleashed the imagination and the pens of strategists, journalists and commentators of every colour and creed, rivalling each other in their efforts to describe the “post-Covid” world. Although we did not go so far as to engage in any perilous forecasts as to what the world would become, we did focus on the macro and investment lessons of this extraordinary situation. We are coming back on these investment conclusions in this investment letter and try to update them in light of the recent events.

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  8. Monthly Newsletter, June 2020

    Heading towards a precarious balance… This might be one way of describing the prevailing situation in recent weeks. After the initial shock triggered by the outbreak and then the lockdowns of populations around the world in an effort to curb the epidemic, the month of May has seen the initial phase of lifting confinement measures. This search for a precarious balance can be observed at a public health, economic and financial levels. We are discussing those points in our monthly newsletter.

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  9. Monthly Newsletter, May 2020

    An earthquake will very often be followed by aftershocks of varying intensities, a sign of the movements of the tectonic plates. The same goes for financial market crises where, after an initial stock market crash, the markets can be followed by both bounces and other downward movements and/or the crisis may start to affect other asset classes. In this respect, April proved to be both true to these principles and yet exceptional by the reaction of the equity and credit markets and by the dislocation that occurred in oil price. We are discussing those points in our monthly newsletter.

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  10. Investment Focus, April 2020

    On April 20th, the West Texas Intermediate price, the American crude oil benchmark, tumbled. More precisely, the WTI May 20 future contract ended the day in negative territory, reaching intraday USD -37.6. First take and implications of this unprecedented move.

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  11. QUARTERLY OUTLOOK, 2ND QUARTER 2020

    Whenever a crisis arises, the very first reflex of any investor is to declare that it is like no other before it… before going on to compare it with previous crises.

    If we leave aside the human drama of the coronavirus crisis and focus on the stock market and macro-economic consequences, it might be tempting to assert that this episode scores fairly highly among the most brutal crises.

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  12. Investment Focus, march 2020

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  13. MONTHLY NEWSLETTER, MARCH 2020

    Coronavirus, a single situation, two different views…

    This is how financial markets’ attitudes to coronavirus can be summarized in a nutshell - at least until the last week in February. Equity and credit markets initially sent a generally reassuring message, regaining the ground lost in January. This optimism was not shared, however, by so-called “risk-off” assets (gold and US Treasury bills) which, far from losing ground, continued to rise.

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  14. MONTHLY NEWSLETTER, FEBRUARY 2020

    So far so good – until now ...

    That is how investor sentiment could be summarised at the start of this year. Equity and credit markets are continuing in the same vein as in 2019, reaching new records and for the time being disregarding fears and geopolitical tensions. Only at month-end, the corona virus outbreak revives fears and bad memories from the SRAS.

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  15. QUARTERLY PERSPECTIVES, 1st QUARTER 2020

    2019 already in the rear-view mirror, what outlook for 2020 ?

    2019 ends on a positive performance for a large number of asset classes, in sharp contrast with 2018. In short, the global economy slowed sharply in 2019 but avoided recession. Once again the major central banks were very helpful, they are all now in accommodative mode. What should we infer for the 2020 outlook ?

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  16. UK General Elections, December 2019

    Results and implications

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  17. MONTHLY NEWSLETTER, December 2019

    The Trade War will not be happening...

    That is the mantra that investors seem to be repeating over and over this month. Indeed, the markets appear to have been buoyed by the prospect of finally seeing an agreement between the United States and China over the trade war.

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  18. MONTHLY NEWSLETTER, November 2019

    Deal or No Deal, that is the question

    A fitting summary of this month’s news that has been so dominated by 1– the possibility of the United States and China signing a “mini deal”, and 2– the prospect of a deal finally being ratified for the United Kingdom’s withdrawal from the European Union.

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  19. Investment Focus, October 2019

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  20. Quarterly Perspectives, October 2019

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  21. Investment Focus, September 2019

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  22. Investment Focus, August 2019

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