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Hollywood is no stranger to producing more or less successful sequels to successful films. In many ways, Donald Trump's return to the White House is reminiscent of these movie sequels, in which the hero returns in a new plot after a more or less long lapse of time. While it is still too early to assess the economic impact of Trump's second term in office, it is clear that the markets, particularly the US markets, have not remained indifferent to Donald Trump's announced return, appreciating by close to 6% over the month. In this newsletter, we take a closer look at these events and the themes that have been driving financial markets since then.  With the victory of the Republicans both in the White House and in Congress, the Trump trades from 2016 are finding renewed interest. Among these, one currently has caught our eye: US small and mid-caps.  In relative terms, this segment of the US market is the least expensive, with deregulation seeming to be the most achievable part of their program and the less costly one to implement. This sector should benefit disproportionally. It is though worth keeping in mind that the first measures will have to wait until the inauguration in January 2025…

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Geopolitical flashpoints and potential outcomes

The last few years has seen quite a number of events which have resonated across all regions of the globe. Groupe Eric Sturdza has commissioned Herminius, the UK-based intelligence and advisory firm, to provide their geopolitical insight into what is happening in regards to Russia and Ukraine, Middle East, and other regions , providing their views on the situation holds for the rest of the year, beyond the newspaper headlines. The rationale behind commissioning this report was to get a different perspective of where the global risk and flashpoints may be and what potential outcomes could evolve over the next year. These ideas are developed in greater detail in this report.

Download the Report PDF
Download the Report PDF